The eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is often referred to as the "Mount Everest of global weather forecasting." With an elevation difference exceeding 5,000 meters and a complex mix of mountains and basins, this region experiences dramatic vertical variations in meteorological elements. To tackle the challenges posed by this complex terrain, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Meteorological Research Institute established a 12-member numerical weather prediction (NWP) team. After three years of dedicated effort, the team successfully developed the SWC-WINGS high-resolution NWP system, covering the entire Southwest China region. This system serves as an intelligent meteorological shield, exemplifying the spirit of scientists in the new era through concrete actions.
Previously, numerical weather prediction models for Southwest China, operating at a 9 km resolution, failed to capture mesoscale and smaller weather systems, and precipitation forecast accuracy under complex terrain was below 60%. In response to the meteorological service requirements of the Chengdu FISU World University Games, a campaign to improve forecasting accuracy was launched. LEICE team enhanced the model’s horizontal resolution to 1 km and refined the vertical layering to 51 levels—essentially performing a “CT scan” of the atmosphere. This seemingly straightforward upgrade overcame multiple bottlenecks, including limitations in computing resources, physical parameterization schemes, and data assimilation technologies.
In terms of innovative observation techniques, our team identified observation target areas based on sensitive zones of severe weather impacts, conducted numerical experiments, and evaluated the benefits of assimilating observational data. This led to the establishment of a full-chain operational framework of “planning—observation—application,” providing a scientific foundation for UAV-based flexible observations in complex southwestern terrain. Observation experiments were designed based on forecast needs, enabling rapid integration of data into operational forecasting platforms and enhancing the capability of the regional NWP system.
To address the challenges in processing and assimilating multi-band, multi-platform lidar data, our team developed lidar quality control algorithms based on local raindrop spectra and unified data processing modules for various formats. This improved the application rate of lidar data in the region by more than 30%. Furthermore, we optimized key physical parameterization schemes for the Sichuan region, significantly improving the accuracy of heavy rainfall forecasts. These cumulative enhancements increased precipitation forecast accuracy to 80%, playing a crucial role in the successful meteorological support for the Chengdu Universiade.
With the rapid advancement of science and technology, our LEICE team is integrating NWP and artificial intelligence to push the boundaries of high-resolution forecasting. Our goal is to realize a new-generation intelligent system that links “observation—modeling—correction” in a full chain. In urban areas of the Chengdu Plain, we are developing a “100-meter scale” urban weather model and launching forward-looking studies on “urban digital twins” and “low-altitude weather forecasting” under the context of climate change.
From short-term forecasting to nowcasting, and from 9-km resolution down to 1-km, our plateau-based meteorological research team has persistently pursued innovation. Through our dedication and scientific spirit, we are writing a brilliant new chapter in the quest to understand and forecast the sky.
